The Emerging Electoral Realignment That Could Shake Up Politics As We Know It
Electoral realignment has happened periodically since the first political parties were founded, and the most recent presidential and midterm election results indicate such a shift may be developing.
Politics are in a constant state of change, even though that change is often gradual. Every so often, however, those changes build into emerging trends that alter the way we approach elections.
The midterm elections held a little over a week ago on November 8 are one such example. We knew there would be surprises, but some surprises were so significant that they bucked historic trends that have held for decades. I will dive into more specifics on longer term trends later, but here are some big picture highlights worth noting.
First, Democrats as a whole held their own incredibly well when almost every historical election result indicator was not in their favor. For instance, it is well known political wisdom that the party that does not hold the presidency typically does better in the midterm elections than the party in power. There are few outliers, and it appears that 2022 may be among them. Likewise, President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and continuing concerns with inflation and a potential recession sent signals that voters may lean towards Republicans across the board. Despite these factors, Democrats maintained control of the Senate and appear on track to only narrowly lose the House. Democrats also managed to flip three governors’ seats (Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona) and held governors’ mansions in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin, and even Kansas. Republicans only flipped one gubernatorial seat in Nevada.
Second, after polling and speculation indicated that restrictions on reproductive rights and the overturning of Roe v. Wade would not be a major motivating factor for voters in the election, both exit polls and election results indicated this issue did encourage strong voter turnout. Of the five states that put reproductive rights ballot initiatives before voters, three states passed their measures protecting reproductive rights and two states voted down measures that would have restricted reproductive rights. These results spanned traditionally blue states, purple states, and traditionally red states, and they also indicate that restrictions on reproductive rights may have reached the extent of their popularity.
Some of the results appeared to support broader emerging trends in terms of electoral realignments.
Historically, electoral realignments occur approximately every 30 to 40 years, and numerous political scientists consider the most recent significant realignment to have happened around 1980 with the rise of Reaganism. These changes do not occur in a vacuum, and numerous factors play into these developments, such as demographic changes, interstate population shifts, party issue stances, and economic conditions, to name a few. The COVID-19 pandemic, volatile economic conditions, and major shifts in where Americans live due to widespread remote work are all key factors that may expedite the emerging realignment.
Recently, notable trends have emerged in both congressional and presidential elections that lend evidence to a potential electoral shift. Overall, the data suggests the Northeast is growing redder, and the Southwest has gotten bluer. We have also seen particular states in other regions move away from historical political alignment trends.
Let’s start with the Northeast*. Often seen as one of the most solidly liberal parts of the country, the states of Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have become one of the key regional components of the Democratic base for decades. For example, with the exception of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, this region’s states have voted for the Democratic candidate in each presidential election since 1992 (New Hampshire voted for Pres. George W. Bush in 2000, and Pennsylvania narrowly broke for Pres. Donald Trump in 2016). Two states, Rhode Island and New York, only voted for a Republican presidential candidate once since 1976: both in 1984 for Pres. Ronald Reagan. Even the vote margins in presidential elections have held fairly steady among these states, with a couple of differing trends. For instance, since 2000, Vermont and Maine have trended slightly more blue over time, while Pennsylvania has become more competitive for both parties over that same time period. (Check out the American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara and 270toWin for more specific data on this and other regions/states discussed**).
However, the presidential election trends do not tell the whole story here. New York in particular has seen its U.S. House race margins in favors of Democrats thin, especially in the northern and western portions of the state. For example, in the 2010 midterms that resulted in the rise of the Tea Party and a loss of 63 Democratic House seats nationwide, five of New York’s districts flipped in favor of Republicans. Since 2010, Republican footing in upstate New York has held firm, and Democratic vote margins in traditionally deep-blue areas like Buffalo, Rochester, and Albany have narrowed. Similar trends have emerged in Connecticut since 2010, with the solid-blue state’s Democratic House and Senate margins tightening so much so that Republicans have increasingly indicated they see the opportunity to flip seats in recent years. While most of New England’s Democratic seats held out this cycle, much closer than expected races for a Connecticut Senate seat and a House seat in Rhode Island suggest the GOP may be on to something here.
Moving on to the sunny Southwest (which includes Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma for our purposes), we see a traditionally Republican-leaning region moving away from the GOP, and population shifts may be a significant cause. Among the nation’s 10 fastest growing states, five (Utah, Texas, Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona) are in the Southwest, and of the 15 fastest growing cities in the country, 11 are in either Texas, Nevada, or Arizona.
The Southwest has a complicated history with both parties. Oklahoma and Utah have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1976, and Texas has done so since 1980. Arizona has a more mixed record, voting with the Republican presidential candidate in all but two elections since 1976; it voted in favor of Pres. Bill Clinton in 1996 and Pres. Joe Biden in 2020. Colorado voted for the GOP somewhat reliably until 2008 when it broke for Pres. Barack Obama, and its other recent Democratic swing happened in 1992. The region’s most reliably blue states, New Mexico and Nevada, have consistently sided with Democratic presidential candidates since 2008. Nevada also went for Pres. Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996, and New Mexico has supported Democrats in all but one presidential cycle since 1992 (it voted for Pres. George W. Bush in 2004). Overall, only Oklahoma has remained a steady supporter of the Republican presidential candidate since 2000. While Texas and Utah have remained red states over that time, their vote margins have trended in favor of Democrats. Meanwhile, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have trended towards Democratic candidates so substantially, they all have flipped away from the GOP, with Arizona crossing that threshold most recently.
The vote margins in House and Senate races also tell a similar story of the Southwest moving left. The GOP’s margins in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada have notably shrunk since 2010. The metro areas around Phoenix, Denver, and Las Vegas have seen the most significant shifts as these rapidly growing cities attract people from across the country. Likewise, all three states will maintain their solely Democratic Senate delegations as they have since 2020 following the recent re-elections of Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ), and Sen. Michael Bennet (CO), joining their neighbor, New Mexico, in this distinction. Whether the economic and demographic trends fueling the Southwest’s movement left will continue in earnest is unclear, but it is safe to say the region appears to be undergoing one of the most visible electoral realignments in the nation.
Some states are standing out in their regions as possible tell-tale signs of coming change, and it appears that both political parties are taking note. For instance, Ohio and Florida have notably shifted further right in recent elections. Considered the two of the country’s bellwether states, it appears they may be approaching the end of such an era. Democrats have experienced sliding margins in Ohio since 2012 and in Florida since 2008. While Ohio still has a Democratic senator (Sen. Sherrod Brown), Senator-elect J.D. Vance, a Republican, won a resounding victory last week. In Florida, a Democrat has not represented the state in the Senate since 2018, and House Democrats suffered serious losses there in 2020. Their numbers thinned further after this cycle, with Democrats only holding seven of 28 districts after two seats flipped. With their bellwether status beginning to look less certain, it appears states such as Pennsylvania are moving in to take their place.
Several Midwestern states also appear to be shifting right. In addition to Ohio, Missouri has firmly supported the GOP presidential candidate since 2000, and the Republican vote margin has only grown with time. A Democrat has not represented the state in the U.S. Senate since 2018, and the state has only had two Democratic representatives from the St. Louis and Kansas City areas, respectively, since 2012. Iowa is another state with a right-ward tilt. This formerly blue state has seen its Republican vote margins steadily increase since 2008, and the Democratic members of the state’s Congressional delegation are now entirely benched in an about-face from the state’s leftward swing in 2018.
Meanwhile, the South and Plains states hold a few outliers of their own. Georgia, once a conservative bastion of the Deep South, has now emerged as a swing state. Georgia became competitive as early as 2008, and the Peach State voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in two decades in 2020. The state’s move left is thanks in large part to the fast-growing, increasingly-liberal Atlanta metro area, which was instrumental in delivering the state for Pres. Joe Biden in 2020. The metro was also key to sending not one, but two, Democratic senators to Washington that same year, representing the first time a Democrat represented the state in the Senate since 2005. It is also important to note that these victories would not have been possible without the strong organizing efforts and high turnout rates of the state’s Black voters, especially Black women. Georgia’s newfound status as a swing state will continue to keep the nation’s attention as we await the highly anticipated Senate runoff between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) on December 6.
Another state that is indicating a blue shift is Kansas. Over the past few years, the state has offered several political surprises. In 2018, the Sunflower State elected Laura Kelly as governor, making her the first Democrat to hold the office in over a decade, and the state’s Third Congressional District also elected the nation’s first lesbian Native American woman, Rep. Sharice Davids (D), to the U.S. House of Representatives that year. This year, Kansas not only re-elected both Gov. Kelly and Rep. Davids, but it also voted down a state constitutional amendment that would have removed protections for abortion access in August following the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Likewise, the Republican voter margin in presidential elections has shown some decline since 2012. Though still a safely red state, Kansas appears to be trending towards a slow-but-steady electoral shift left largely fueled by the growing Kansas City suburbs.
There are still ample opportunities for these trends to shift for any number of reasons over the coming years, but the available data suggests shifting political headwinds are on the horizon in communities large and small across the nation. The full range of political consequences of those changes remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: change is the only constant in politics.
I wish you all a safe, happy, and healthy holiday season with your loved ones!
*Regions listed are defined for the purposes of this analysis by the author and are not based on U.S. Census definitions.
**Analysis of election results since 1976 is based on available overlapping data from both World Economic Forum and 270toWin.